Winners & Losers

Mommy and Daddy say the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammad bin Zayed, recently toured the less prosperous parts of the United Arab Emirates to hold town-hall-style meetings. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced a $10 billion increase in welfare spending to help young people marry, buy homes, and open businesses. Trying to hold onto our thrones, aren't we now?

In the Middle East, two presidents have already tumbled: Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia. Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is in an increasingly tenuous position. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya is desperately trying to resist rebellious forces too. Despite all this upheaval, it doesn't look like the region's monarchs are going anywhere. The presidents seem more likely to fall.

Bahrain's King Hamad and his security forces were pretty brutal in their treatment of the insurgents - almost shocking for the prosperous Bahrainis. King Abdullah of Jordan managed to handle the unrest too. Although the monarchs rule in a similar fashion to the presidents of the region, the presidents oversee more populous countries, without the oil wealth of the gulf monarchies. The much lesser unrest in countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait is mostly because all of them are regal welfare states - citizens pay no taxes and are looked after by the government. In the U.A.E, for example, when one citizen marries another, the government helps to pay for the wedding and even to buy a home. This gives the monarchies more legitimacy than the republics. The republics claim that the people have a voice - when they really don't have one. With the monarchies, no one's pretending to have a voice.

The turmoil in the Middle East is a time of change in history. As powerful and influential countries fail to play the role that they can during this time, we've come to a stark recognition: it's only the people of the Middle East that can pick the winners and the losers.