As the sun set today on the sixth day of widespread protests in Egypt, the Obama administration continued to walk a difficult line on what is generally agreed to be its most challenging foreign policy test to date. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the US wants to see an "orderly transition" to a "democratic, participatory government." This pretty much made clear that the US administration was not ready to demand or even suggest the overthrow of its longtime ally, President Hosni Mubarak.
This is all too reminiscent of Tehran in 1978 - Jimmy Carter had found himself in the middle of a dilemma, too. He had to decide whether to remain loyal to the long-standing American-backed dictatorship or to dump the Shah and support the popular uprising demanding democracy and human rights. Carter tried to play smart and have it both ways - he modulated his support to the Shah, called for political liberalization, and warned the Shah against the use of state violence. Obama seems to be doing the same.
Just like the coalition of secular liberals and religiously inspired political activists that brought down the Shah, a consensus has emerged from the Egyptian streets that Mubarak must go. But after the Shah's fall came Ayatollah Khomeini and that is probably what the Obama administration fears: that after Mubarak an anti-Western, Islamist regime will come to power, most probably through the popular election of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is actually much more moderate than Khomeini's Shi'ite clerics. But if and when it comes to power, it will remind the Egyptian people that it was billions of American military aid dollars that kept Mubarak's 30-year regime afloat.
From past experiences, Washington this time should make sure that it stays on the side of political reform and change and show that it is not aligned with the Arab status quo. America needs to display that its interest in the Middle East is not driven by its addiction to oil. Washington clearly needs to say that it will support any regime that will come to power through fair elections - even if that means supporting the Brotherhood.
Obama won many Muslim hearts with his speech in Cairo in June 2009. It is now time for him to show that those were more than just words.
well their foreign policy will remain the same as long as it serves their interests. It always has been like that and always been, sad but true
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